Zinc Ingot Export Window Remains Open, Focus on Subsequent Export Performance [SMM Zinc Morning Comment]

SMM October 27 News:

Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $3,023/mt. After opening, it fluctuated along the daily average line, rose to a high of $3,040/mt, then quickly pulled back to explore a low of $2,993/mt. Entering the European trading session, LME zinc slightly recovered from the low to near the daily average line, finally closing down at $3,019.5/mt, down $3/mt or 0.1%. Trading volume decreased to 11,522 lots, and open interest increased by 1,629 lots to 224,000 lots. Last Friday, LME zinc formed a bearish candlestick, with support from the 20-day moving average below. US September CPI data came in lower than expected, strengthening market expectations for an interest rate cut. However, LME inventory saw a slight accumulation, and the upward momentum for LME zinc prices was insufficient, causing LME zinc to hover at highs.

Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2512 contract opened at 22,250 yuan/mt. After opening, SHFE zinc fluctuated upward, reaching a high of 22,315 yuan/mt during the night session, then pulled back slightly from the high, finally closing down at 22,300 yuan/mt, down 55 yuan/mt or 0.25%. Trading volume decreased to 55,598 lots, and open interest increased by 1,569 lots to 122,000 lots. Last Friday, SHFE zinc formed a bullish candlestick, with the KDJ gap narrowing. Recently, the zinc ingot export window has remained open, some zinc ingots have been actually exported, and some enterprises still have export intentions, supporting SHFE zinc prices to hold up well. However, considering the generally moderate fundamental consumption, the upside for SHFE zinc may be limited.

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